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Novastar Financial, Inc (NFI)

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Earnings Calculator update

mhatmccane

409 posts

Joined
1/20/2006

Earnings Calculator update
Posted: 07 May 06 1:38 PM

Earnings Calculator Rev #51 Available
by: brokeflatranch

05/06/06 04:21 pm
Msg: 429287 of 429370

An updated EarningsCalculator spreadsheet is available in the files section, file name EarningsCalculator.xls, at the NFI_infor_and_Opinions group site;

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NFI_infor_and_Opinions/

Two major factors came into play that resulted in prior estimates being out of kilter--to the low side--and that is good. One was the bulk loan that the company added to their production figures (see Q1 production) and the other is a much lower rate of run-off; down from an estimated $2.2 to $1.7 billion). Heck; if I'm going to be wrong, being wrong to the low side seems preferable.

Here are some highlights comparing the estimates prior to the Q1 release with the Q1 actual numbers; and some revised prognostications for the fuzzy future.

Estimated versus reported Q1/2006 data (millions):

Shares outstanding: 32,381 vs 32,717
(at end of period)

1st Quarter TI: $60,127 vs $65,505
(before subtracting preferred)

1st Quarter DIV declared: $45,333 vs $45,804
($1.40/share common + $1,663 total preferred)

1st Quarter Production: $1,791 vs $2,822 (bulk loan purchase was difference)

1st Quarter Run-off: $2,204 vs $1,723
(very good improvement in run-off rate)

1st Quarter Ending Port: $13,618 vs $15,129
(billions; from bulk purchase & lower run-off)

1st Quarter TI/share: $1.86 vs $2.00
(before subtracting preferred)

1st Quarter TI/share: $1.81 vs $1.95
(after subtracting preferred)

Full year 2006 Div: $7.40-7.60 vs $7.35-7.60
(no secondary-versus secondary)

Full year 2006 TI: $6.26-6.57 vs $7.86-8.25
(from higher production & lower run-off)

Year 2006 Spillover: $4.87-5.21 vs $6.84-6.85
(2005 spillover was $6.50)

Full year 2007 Div: $5.95-6.40 vs $7.35-$7.90
(between $8-9 in 2008? Anybody?)

Again; the improvement in the estimates is due to the increase in production and decrease in run-off in Q1, while the spread in estimates is predicated upon the number of shares outstanding primarily related to whether or not there is a 1.725 million secondary in Q2 of each year.

Have fun; sure wish I could have gone to AM but that's the way the chips fall.

Glen K/bov

PS: No; I'm not rejoining the board as an active participant; I told folks I would keep the earnings calculator up to date quarterly and, voilà! It's done.

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Specific Stocks

Novastar Financial, Inc (NFI)

Earnings Calcul...