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In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery...

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Posted by:   bobo 2/21/2006 8:12 PM

I have a challenge for all the fine folks in the media who take the stance that NSS is not pervasive, and destructive of property rights, and a widespread fraud being perpetrated on the American investing public.

 

Let’s deal with one issue at a time. First, let's try the notion that it isn't a big problem - that it is not really happening much.

 

I challenge you to go out and buy 1000 shares each of OSTK, NFI, and NAVR. Request paper certificates, and buy 10 puts to cover your downside. Do so in a way that is covert, so if you are a "name", it isn't obvious that you are doing this experiment.

 

Then do the same for MSFT.

 

Report back to us how long the experience took.

 

It strikes me that all the media and such who position the issue as a non-issue can do so for only one reason – the SEC and DTCC refuse to provide any data, thereby creating an industry-wide deniability factor. If there was transparency, there wouldn’t be anything to talk about.

 

I maintain that secrecy is driven by the DTCC, whose broker/dealer owners want to keep the actual lay of the land secret. They seek to obfuscate via secrecy and intermediation the true functioning of the “industry within and industry” that is abusive failing to deliver. If brokerage statements were forced to disclose that the IOUs in them had no voting rights or other parcel of rights of a legitimate share, investors would justifiably want to know why their cash had been debited prior to any good form delivery of shares. Same for shares lent via the Stock Borrow Program – if investors were notified that there were no longer any shares in their account, there would be pandemonium.

 

If investors knew that the DTCC took the position that they are a SRO, with all of the protections from suits, etc. an SRO has, and yet refuses to police the ex-clearing “Securities arrangements” that allow for virtually indefinite fails between conspiring brokers (stating that they are powerless to regulate those arrangements), they would be drawn and quartered. Ditto for claiming that they are powerless to buy-in fails. Newsflash - policing your participants means more than running interference for them and lending virtually unlimited amount of stock via the SBP – it also involves reining them in, and policing their behavior – sort of tough to do to your owners, I’ll be the first to admit.

 

I would propose that you fine media pundits read the comprehensive analysis of the DTCC’s performance under 17A, in Dr. DeCosta’s blog, and ask yourselves how that state of affairs can be. How did the interests of investors get so undermined by the industry dependent upon their money?

 

As for the apologists in the media, buy the stocks – a basket of SHO list companies – and buy a blue-chip to set a baseline.

 

I keep hearing the facile and silly excuse that all those delivery failures could be innocent. Sure they could. And the other, well-documented examples of Wall Street larceny could have been innocent, too. Which is what everyone claimed, until they were shown to be crooked. The S&L crisis was defended by the Reagan administration, by most regulators, by elected officials, as having innocent possible explanations for all those insolvent S&Ls. Which sat well, until it blew up, and the public discovered that our elected officials and our regulators had lied to us, because they were paid off by the crooks. Ditto for media coverage of that crisis – not a discouraging word was to be heard from the press until the bombs went off – then, suddenly, there was outrage.

 

This is the same gamebook being played.

 

So my challenge is simple. You claim there’s no problem. Go buy a basket of SHO list stocks, and report on the time it takes to get good form delivery. We know from Byrne’s experience that it takes over 2 months for OSTK. My hunch is it is at least that long for some of the others.

 

Want to bet that nobody runs this little experiment?

 

Because hear no evil, speak no evil is the order of the day.

 

Just keep repeating after me: There is no problem, we shouldn’t know the data, trades don’t need to settle….

Copyright ©2006 Bob O'Brien
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Comments (18)
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By Blackbart on 2/21/2006 9:04 PM
A problem Bob! I seriously doubt that anyone who wants delivery of any stock on the SHO in the quantities of a few hundred shares will see rejection on their delivery especially if the shareholder is a "brand name" in this environment. I think your "science project" will fail because of the amounts are not monumental enough to cause a big problem. Even Patrick Byrne got his delivery of what 50,000 shares AFTER he went public about his failed delivery. The failures exist but I am not sure this is the best method to prove FTD's. The industry as you well know is very resilient and will cover up any exposure as long as it is possible. No brokerage firm, DTCC, SEC, Congressional member or other regulator will do ANYTHING until they absolutely have to. I actually observed the NASDAQ site in blatant manipulation of facts on numerous occasions and reported such to the SEC. The SEC acknowledged receipt of each complaint but has failed to do anything or make public a response from NASDAQ. What a cozy little enterprise we have working for us!
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By hwh on 2/21/2006 9:59 PM
I would add only that B/D's are owned by bankers who cross collateralize & cross conflict of interest with regulating bodies of each here-to-for legislatively seperated entities via the FED & SEC & ISE...hwh
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By hwh on 2/21/2006 10:00 PM
"The same old people carrying out the same old sins," the 80's LTD partnership scammers(see corrupt lawyers, but then I am redundant) have become today's equity intermediaries...hwh
Naked Wall Street - the Conference By Jeff Mitchell on 2/21/2006 10:01 PM
Lots of trash talking going on here. Wouldn't it be nice to finally take it out of the locker room and onto the playing field? As I wrote before, I'm willing to organize a conference that will accomplish just that-- a chance for both sides to put up or shut up. Are you game? If so, check out my message board on Silicon Investor on this subject: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=56438. I put it in an area where anyone can join and post for free.

- Jeff
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By bobo on 2/21/2006 9:58 PM
I changed it to 1000 shares, and recommended doing the purchase in a "quiet" account.

Don't worry. I don't think anyone will do it. Not one of these yellow bellies could take the 45 seconds to dial the phone and confirm the Rocker subpoena story. Why would they go to the trouble to do this?

Unless they wanted a Pulitzer, or they were setting it up to settle in two days so they could declare that all was well - but I have a feeling that is pretty far fetched.
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By bobo on 2/21/2006 10:07 PM
Jeff: I'm not sure I understand. we left this with I would support the endeavor if you felt like doing the heavy lifting, but that I felt it was an exercise in fuility without data. Susan Trimbath, Robert Shapiro, Finnerty, Angel, DeCosta, Burrell, Patch, all have a wealth of understanding of the business and the issues, but that does no good unless there is disclosure from the SEC and DTCC as to the size of the problem and relevant data points. Otherwise it is nothing more than one side going, "it could all be innocent" and the other going, "it could all be larceny."

But it's all angels on the head of a pin without the data.

How are you proposing anything different than what took place at the NASAA conference, where the DTCC didn't show up, and the SEC sent Brigagliano, who carefully mouthed the party line?

And what will make it different?

Exactly?
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By jersey_devil on 2/21/2006 10:47 PM
Jeff Mitchell- Maybe you can get Elgindy to show up. OOPS! I forgot your buddy might get life pretending he likes anal sex in prison.
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By hwh on 2/21/2006 10:48 PM
Is Jeff mitchell the president of the SI "Red Herring" Hedge-hog Brigade?...hwh
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By Jeff Mitchell on 2/22/2006 8:14 AM
Let's assume for the moment, for the sake or argument, that all this talk about naked shorting is truly much ado about very little. If I were someone from the DTC, I'd be thinking to myself "How can I shut these crazies up?" So why not throw down the gauntlet. Why not write a blog entry of exactly what you want from the DTC to shut you up. Challenge them to present it at my conference in a forum where y'all can debate it with the world watching. Can you think of any better way to resolve things than in an open public forum? After all, aren't you tired of writing entry after entry of insults? Where does that get you?

- Jeff
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By dave on 2/22/2006 8:14 AM
It occurred to me that we are letting the apologists control our agenda. They know for sure that there is naked shorting. Lil GW, for example, wrote an article a few years ago where he admitted naked shorting takes place.

People like Jeff Mitchell likely naked short personally on a regular basis.

There is no point in arguing with them because they agree with us. It's a technique to keep the debate focussed on whether or not it exists rather than on what proactive things we can do to put pressure on the system.

I had a friend that used to do that to people for fun - he would wind them up like a top by refusing to agree with them in an argument no matter what evidence they provided. It was like a game - he just liked seeing them get all wound up and actually agreed with their argument.

If you play that role, you can be pretty infuriating and it can be entertaining to watch the rising level of frustration on the person providing the evidence.

"Describe how that works, exactly."
"Show me some evidence."
"I think you're crazy. That makes no sense."
"I'm an expert and that isn't how it works."

No matter what you say, they just pick one of their canned phrases to spit back at you.
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By dave on 2/22/2006 8:15 AM
GW doesn't deny that naked shorting takes place. He just argues that it is a good thing.

"THE NEW RULE is designed to stamp out what is known as "naked" short-selling....Short-sellers argue that the SEC action would eliminate the only market force against overhyped -- or even fraudulent -- small-cap and microcap stocks. And that, they maintain, would be as devastating for ordinary investors as it would be -- financially -- for the short-sellers. "It would crush the whole business of market-making and short-selling and enhance a hundredfold the crime level in these stocks," asserts one New York short-seller who -- like all shorts interviewed for this article -- requested anonymity."

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_49/b3861105_mz020.htm

The people you are arguing with all know with 100% certainty that naked shorting happens all the time. They just don't want the regulators to get rid of it as it makes them and their friends a lot of money.


Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By bobo on 2/22/2006 8:45 AM
Jeff: Actually, I do enjoy insulting, early, and often. That said, your point is not invalid. The problem is that you are entertaining a marvelous delusion - that the DTCC would have any interest in letting the cat out of the bag.

They were invited to the NASAA conference, failed to attend, then lied about it. They knew all the authorities would be there, and the last thing they wanted was to have to answer hard questions with straight answers.

Here are some examples of hard questions you will NEVER see answers to:

1) How may shares of FTDs were grandfathered in Janurary, 2005?
2) What dollar figure did that represent?
3) What is the cumulative daily FTDs (in shares) per day on the NYSE and NASD, INCLUDING EX-CLEARING?
4) Ditto for OTCBB?
5) What percentage of trading in OSTK, or NFI, or NAVR, fails per month?

That addresses the how large a problem is it. Next, we have mechanical questions:

1) Does the SBP allow redeposit of shares by the new buyer's broker, for relending - an anonymous, replenishing lending pool with virtually no controls?
2) When a SBP share is lent to cure a FTD, is what is left in the SBP in its place an "Entitlement", possessing no voting rights, or other rights of a genuine share?
3) Is the lending shareholder ever informed that he has lost those rights?
4) Can not a single genuine share than create an endless stream of "Entitlements", as it bounces from broker to broker to broker? If not, why not? We are not talking about being re-lent from the same broker - we are talking about new brokers.
5) Is it true that the SBP's share availability is on the honor system, with no regulation or verification to ensure that cash and retirement accounts are not also being lent from this anonymous pool?
6) The NSCC acts as the contra-party, guaranteeing delivery, but simultaneously says that it is "powerless" to buy in a failing seller. Why is that, and does not the time delay amount to zero effective guarantee - given there is no time guarantee?
7) The DTCC claims no ability to police ex-clearing contracts. Doesn't enabling participants to arrange for delivery outside of the system, on the honor system, result in an effective mechanism to violate 17A and T+3 requirements for prompt settlement? How is this a good idea for anyone but larcenous participants? What safeguards are in place to ensure that this does not result in wholesale abuse?

These are just a few questions you will never see answered. They could answer them today if they wanted. They don't want to.

It doesn't require a symposium to have them refuse to answer. They refuse every day.

Without the data, your meeting will degenerate into a bunch of apologists claiming that it is all a load of hooey - non-disprovable, in their minds, and certainly not definitively disprovable absent the data - and those on our side of the fence who will cite a mountain of evidence, and be told, "that isn't definitive proof" - regardless of what is offered up. That is also non-disprovable, as the relevant data is missing.

Again, I would celebrate a forum where the SEC and DTCC come to the table to disclose the size and scope of the problem, with hard, complete data, but it will never happen. Won't. If you can make it happen, you are a God, walking the earth, among mere mortals.

I won't hold my breath, but will support your efforts, as I have indicated before. I am not anti-short selling, I am anti-fraud, and this particular fraud is my pet peeve. I don't care where or how the true lay of the land is presented, or which "side" arranges for it to occur. Your problem is you are about to discover that the DTCC doesn't wish to rush in, make disclosure, and discuss things open and honestly, and neither does the DTCC. The reason is because this is a huge issue for them, and if all facts were known, they would be facing Congressional sanctions, or worse. So they have a lot to hide, from you, me, and everyone else.

So my bet is no DTCC, certainly no disclosure, a bunch of apologists claiming that their industry "experience" "tells them" that it "couldn't be" all that big - absent any data on the relevant areas.

Wanna bet?

There are a ton of qualified experts available to draw from for this from "our" side. Best of luck getting 1 SEC ranking expert and 1 DTCC ranking authority into the room, much less with data supplied for verification.

Transparency is their enemy.

Why is that, do you think?
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By Wonder Boy on 2/22/2006 9:05 AM
Considering the honesty of the DTCC (Cede and Co.), would there ever be a case where a person holds paper certificates, but they, too, are counterfeit? If all the shareholders of a company asked for their certificates and got them, would the DTCC just continue issuing paper certificates when additional people requested them? What mechanisms are in place to prevent this and would they trigger automatically?
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By MajorIssuer on 2/22/2006 11:06 AM
Bobo, Why do you think the SEC lacks transpareny? As far as I can tell, the SEC is completely open about its raids, its bribery. Somebody feeds the SEC a story, it goes out and investigates, holds a press conference to say "We're investigating, we conducted a raid." What's opaque? Jeff Mitchell is not a major issuer. If he were, he'd know how the brokers et al work, and that the DTCC, unlike the SEC, is a nut that can be cracked with the right people.

But Bobo, Mitchell doesn't want to crack the DTCC! He's probably serving the DTCC's interests, and quite willingly.

There is an urgent need for a conference. Preferably not in CT, as that's the home of a large percentage of the billionaires. The meeting should be in a Neutral location, where there is no room for misunderstanding. I think the SEC wants to help. They've said so all along. They're just looking for a story, while the bears attempt (somewhat successfully) to dictate what the story IS. I'll bet they read Bobo and they're on the same page. But some of the threads don't accomplish much. They sound like they're witten by muttering loons. Maybe it's just filler-- Serial, pathological, rantings or ravings by "generally bad men" who could just as easily be pontificating on JonBenet Ramsey or the cover of Cosmo. The SEC reads this stuff and what is it do? It sets out to detroy Overstock, methodically crunching nitpicky numbersr until it finds one irrelevant discrepancy that can be twisted into some disjointed idiocy that casts a cold light on Byrne, his father, the entire board and their mothers too. The patronage at the SEC is rampant and extreme. It also is malleable. It would kill to have a reason for action, a calamity to avenge. Right now the short-sellers are the one's prodding it along.

But Bobo, why not see the malleability as an asset? The SEC can be on your side.
Instead of filling your threads with venom, why don't you give the SEC some solid evidence that it can use to further your cause? Why don't you say in plain language what, precisely, your cause IS? Are you really nothing but a naked-short mega-blogger? Come on! You don't need to chill, Bobo--your spunk is appreciated. You are a very funny, if somewhat pedagogic, rabble rouser. But trust me, you'd be better off having the SEC on your side. It won't do your bidding. But it'd be happy to do your preaching, and your digging, for you. That's what the Government created it for.

As for that genius J. Mitchell, he may be nothing but a psychotic, a dick taker, an Elgindy protoge, an agent provacateur for the hedgies. No doubt, his friends all know this already. What everyone might not know is that Mitchell's veiled messages do nothing but convey a desire to advance BOBO's interests. There can be no other explanation for his blatantly twisted logic. Bobo, there's really no sense in giving thread space to this guy. He might understand the lingo (how many journalists can say that!?), but he's also a nut, a genuine loon who, for all we know, spent most of the past year in a meth-induced psychosis, convinced that he was part of a CIA plot to turn America a Nazi state. Might explain a few things. Why? Whassat? Got me.

Anyway, Mitchell's opinions are set in stone. He's a slobbering fool, pay him no heed. And recognize that he is serving your cause, though perhaps inadvertantly.
He's a self-interested prick of course, but his goals are so nebulous, they're really beyond interpretation.

A little advice from someone who cares.

Peace, Major Issuer




,
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By bobo on 2/22/2006 12:37 PM
Majorissuer: I think that it is in everyone's best interests but the criminals to have a transparent clearing and settling system. We are not talking about the secret to building a dirty bomb out of car parts here, we are talking about clearing and settling stock trades. That there is the level of paranoid secrecy demanded by the clearing and settling system that there is should give one pause.



As to the SEC wanting to help, perhaps that is true. I know that there is a list of companies that could use some help - the Reg SHO list. When I hear the talking heads there deliberately frame the FTD problem in as innocuous a light as possible, using deliberately vague and deceptive language, I smell large rats. I disagree that the SEC is here to help - if you look at their history, they never have. It has always been the states or NASD that leads the charge. This is deliberate - Congress wants to appear to be doing something to regulate, when in fact that is the last thing their large donors want. That has been the case ever since the SEC was formed, and the bill creating it was modified to the point where the Commission was given no teeth. It is by design. Studying its history gives you that much.

This is really simple. If the SEC wants to make me go away, do a few easy things: 1) Don't allow the proceeds of a failed delivery to be credited to a seller until delivery is made. No mark to market free ride. 2) Report short positions daily, and FTD positions daily - complete transparency. 3) Eliminate ex-clearing, or regulate it. 4) Require pre-borrow, not best efforts, on short sales. Put in place meaningful penalties for abuse. 5) Any FTD of T+13 must be bought in, including MMs. No exceptions.

There. We are done. Problem solved. Easy. Didn't even break a sweat.

The reason it isn't solved isn't because it isn't solvable, but rather because the industry would lose its larcenous edge over investors. That is what they are fighting so hard to protect. At some point the interests of the investor were subordinated to the profits of the industry, and the SEC allowed it to happen.

I believe most at the SEC are honest, hardworking folks. They probably would like to make a positive difference in their time there. I also believe that there is a central core of corrupt, compromised cynics who believe that they are a law unto themselves, and are beholden to Wall Street. There are plenty of examples of captured regulators throughout history - so it isn't like it can't or doesn't happen.

Whether Jeff is a scumbag or a saint or a meth fiend or not doesn't particularly matter to me. If his interests align with mine he is my ally, albeit a tentative one. If they don't he is my adversary. It isn't personal, so I don't much care for personalities. That is why some journalists and I get along, and others don't. And I don't much care either way.

So let's play this round and see what happens. Deal?
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By rtway1 on 2/22/2006 12:58 PM
If anybody can not comprehend what you have just written, then they are without their faculties. You have made it as easy to understand that a new investor who has read investing 101 can understand. Don,t throw away this answer just repost it to save time.
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By MajorIssuer on 2/22/2006 5:14 PM
Sure, deal. But this isn't Ahab on Wall Street. It is Alice in Wonderland. Fall down the rabbit hole, and there's not a lot to do other than taken in the hallucengic spectacle, and then mark another notch on the belt. That's what it's been from day one, for me. No need to make it more complicated than that.

I think some news of this will start appearing very soon.
Re: In The Interest Of Scientific Discovery... By dave on 2/22/2006 5:15 PM
Wonderboy, certificates come from the company transfer agent.

In the case of street form shares, the certificate is registered to Cede & Co. who owns it on your behalf. The DTC keeps track of how to allocate Cede & Co.'s holdings among the various clearing houses and brokerages.

Your own brokerage keeps track of how to allocate the shares among the clients.

The shorting problem is because this process allows more claims on the real shares owned by Cede & Co. than what Cede & Co. has registered with the company transfer agent.

The claims trade as if they were real shares, so no one (almost no one) is any wiser.

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