Call it a hunch.
When complex derivatives lose tremendous value overnight, heads roll.
Watch for the collapse of more than a few of the bellwethers over the next few weeks.
This will serve to underscore my tired yet familiar refrain, that the amount of risk baked into the cake in the system, and the amount of leverage employed by EVERYBODY on Wall Street, is so poorly understood as to be astounding.
Wall Street has been taking your money, and in exchange, leaving an IOU that is only as good as the good faith and credit of the brokerage that gave it to you. Over the next few weeks we will discover that IOU is worthless, and that the ensuing lawsuits are trivial contrasted against the uglies that are to come. The money is gone, folks. All gone. Bye bye. Taken as bonuses and fees and outsized compensation by hedge funds and brokers who picked the last of the American experiment's bones clean.
So now what? Watch. In horror, presumably. As the dollar loses value, as the indexes reel, as the basic problem - Wall Street always playing fast and loose, expecting the music to continue even as the lights dim - causes massive cracks in the system.
It gives me no pleasure to watch this. Or to report on it. The Senate report just released describes, in detail, how the SEC is worse than crooked. It describes how hedge funds engage in flagrant abuse of insider trading rules, naked short selling, every sin one can imagine. It describes how no hope of justice remains. For a blow by blow of the mechanics of a stock manipulation using naked short selling, just turn to page 196 of the report, which describes in detail how this large hedge fund engaged in deliberate destruction of a company's share price using delivery failures as one of their primary mechanisms. It's almost routine. Investors, and other participants, don't stand a chance. It's the roaring 20's all over again. That didn't end well.
The system is broken. Now my only question is how hard and how fast the dollar will fall as America's "trading partners" bail on the experiment.
Remember, I articulated a fear that the way Wall Street would deal with the NSS problem, and the ensuing revelations to ensue from discovery in the OSTK and NFI suits, would be to create a far greater and more serious problem, so nobody even would care about NSS.
I think we are now seeing that.
Get ready for bank failures, hedge funds going belly up, volatility that will make one's head spin, and ultimately, government intervention - where you and I, the taxpayers, subsidize the uber rich risk takers high on a lack of transparency, regulation, and accountability.
Ironically, if the dollar starts tanking, the fed will have to raise rates to defend it, which will further destroy any remaining mortgage market in the US (at least the lower to middle of the pack) and further reduce the value of the collateral that is this generation's disastrous junk bonds.
Times a billion. Or trillion. Or several trillion. Nobody even knows for sure.
Maybe none of this will happen. Maybe everything will be cool, and we can continue down our path like a euphoric drunk behind the wheel of a speeding Caddy. Or maybe this time, is, unfortunately, going to be shown to be disastrously different. As I have been warning. Over and over and over.
Tactic number one when caught red handed: Create a bigger stinky, so nobody remembers the smaller stinky you got caught on.
Any questions?