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TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock

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Posted by:   bobo 5/7/2006 11:00 PM

Arne Alsin wrote another noteworthy article today for Realmoney, Thestreet.com's subscription online newsletter.

The article describes structural deficiencies in the market, and the abusive and larcenous activity of participants run amok, their larceny unchecked by regulators, or their own failed self-regulation.

In it, he describes his own experience as a fund manager, trying to get delivery of his OSTK shares. He describes the experience of other fund managers. And he describes the inevitable loss of faith being experienced by the most knowledgeable of institutional investors - a bad sign, as they understand the system, and the reality of any structural problems.

You can view the article here. Some key excerpts:

"Overstock offers such a lousy risk/reward proposition for shorts, there can be but one reason that a 25% yield is obtainable for lendable shares. It's because certain market players are grossly overextended. With twice as many shares short as are lendable, there are a lot of naked short positions in place that are desperate to find shares to borrow.

The Threat to Investor Confidence
When brokers allow twice as many Overstock shares to be sold short as are lendable, it is evidence of a structural problem. Undergirding the market is an implicit triangle of trust between brokers, companies and investors. For the market to function properly, investors must have confidence in the system. They must be confident that their property is protected, that rules are uniformly enforced and that rule violators are punished.

Stocks are accounted for as a so-called "fungible mass" in a book-entry system, in the same way as currency. It requires confidence for the system to work. Depositors don't demand actual currency for their cash assets because they have confidence in the book-entry system of banks.

As one money manager explained to me, after struggling for weeks to get delivery of Overstock shares (see my column about my similar experience), he lost faith in the system. He didn't trust that his brokers would not lend out his shares. So he demanded actual certificates, which took another several weeks, and they are now in a bank vault.

When shareholders resort to demanding actual certificates for their shares, as has occurred en masse at Overstock, it is akin to a depositor going to his bank and demanding actual currency -- a so-called "run on the bank."

Correct. It is exactly that - a run on the bank, as investors realize that, unlike the Federal Reserve, the privately owned affiliation of brokers that would act as the de facto stock bank are NOT authorized to print stock at will - as the Fed is with currency. Only the issuing companies are allowed to print stock, and the breach in the public trust that wholesale abuse of this trust constitutes is precisely the threat to investor confidence that this site has been warning about for the last year and a half.

When those you trust prove to be untrustworthy, that is disastrous for a system predicated on trust.

And yet, even as this unfolds, and increasing evidence becomes available that Wall Street is a law unto itself, and that no rule is too sacrosanct to violate - even now, the abuse continues unchecked.

I suppose one could view that as a breakdown of the rule of law in the market, or it could be attributed to a sense of invulnerability by the players, or perhaps a sad commentary on the ineptitude of a token regulator asleep at the wheel.

I personally think that it is a group of rich, privileged white guys whose private sentiment is that they rule the country via control of the financial system, and thus are not subject to any rules - that is a naive contrivance to keep the sheep in line. Hey, if you are one of the owners of the Federal Reserve banks, and one of the big names on Wall Street, and you own big chunks of the media companies - who is kidding who? You are the largest contributor to both political parties, and anytime you are caught with your hand in the cookie jar (or hijacking the cookie truck) you get fined less than one cent for every dollar you stole...

Who can blame absolute power for corrupting absolutely?

It always has.

Why would now be any different?

I think the reason most of the investing public ignores this issue is also twofold - they are told by the mouthpieces of this powerful cartel of players, via the media, that all is well and that there is no crisis, and they also view the sort of corruption that takes place on Wall Street as rich guy #1 screwing rich guy #2.

In other words, the public fails to see how it is their problem, and likely has the sense of apathy that has been an earmark of the last few decades.

The problem is that the cracks and fissures are becoming visible, and while our regulator mouths facile aphorisms, a growing segment is becoming aware that this is not an interstitial issue, but rather a fault running the length and breath of the system. I personally view this with mounting alarm, given the lack of action by our watchdogs, and the sense of invulnerability that the industry has displayed.

I celebrate honest commentators like Arne Alsin, and you should too. The truth will out in time, and knowledge is indeed power.

Bucking the trend is difficult, and the complete media cover-up of this issue has been astounding. Guys like Arne are willing to tell the truth, when careers are made by ignoring it. That is noteworthy, and a harsh indictment of the rest of the machine. Our stock bank is broken, the prisoners are running the jail, and our journalists are more interested in "crushing" their opposition and obstructing justice than in reporting the biggest story of our generation.

And that is likely the tame version...

Copyright ©2006 Bob O'Brien
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Comments (13)
Re: TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock By Lenofus on 5/9/2006 7:46 AM
anybody that is interesting in putting money to work needs to investigate Alsin. I don't know his track record, but it would seem to me his persona is reason enough to start. Can you imagine the crap he's taking from his "peers" over his articles? I 'm sure he sits alone at conferences.

Good for Arne Alsin. Arne, it's the right thing to do.
Re: TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock By n-tres-ted on 5/9/2006 7:54 AM
Thanks, Bobo. Here's another quote from the column:

There are about nine million shares of Overstock.com (OSTK:Nasdaq) that are
currently short.

"Here is the problem: My calculations and research indicate that there are
only 4.5 million lendable shares in the float, so twice as many shares have
been sold short by brokers as should have been permitted. This is not
possible, if brokers are playing according to the rules."

Facts are stubborn things. They just keep showing up to confound the bad guys. Another fact is that the ten day average volume is nearly 1 million shares. Incredible for a stock with such a small float.
Re: TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock By nopec2001 on 5/9/2006 7:56 AM
Thanks Bobo,

Now if you have Arne's e-mail address I will send him a thanks too.
Re: TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock By bobo on 5/9/2006 8:03 AM
I don't know if he wants his email made public. If you like, you can email to me and I will forward - ncans.mgr@gmail.com
Re: TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock By upwardmo on 5/9/2006 8:41 AM
It's good to have another ally in the fight. Arne seems like a very valuable one, esp. since he brings a perspective from the institutional investor side of the room. I do have to give props to TSCM for giving Arne a soapbox; never thought they'd do it. Maybe they're just trying to cover their asses by looking "objectve." Nonetheless, I'll take it.
Re: TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock By virakiller on 5/9/2006 8:43 AM
Today in American Finance-May 9, 2006
Dear Friends and Shareholders,

TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION
------------------------------------------------------------

Good morning to you all.

To those of you helping me "spread the word", I thank you from the bottom of my heart.

Robinhood lives in all of us.

Unjust markets and compromised courts STARVE democracy
and is a "feeding frenzy" to the SLOBS in the Kingdom.

Go to your wallets and purses now America.

Children are starving in America today because their parents
bought a "counterfeit" share and their wallets and purses are bare.

McDonalds $1 menu is how you now feed your children

America- you are the victim to a crime. If you or I move
counterfeit ANYTHING through our financial markets ?
WE GO TO JAIL !
They[rich] still roam the American markets and Keep
you and your family in line at McDonalds.

Kingdom Come !
Democracy Done !

Call Chairman Cox at [202] 551-2100

Ask this criminal/traitor to STOP his "friends" from
ROBBING the American Dream from the many that still
dare to dream.

Have a nice day .
Make that call.
Don't work too hard.

Robinhood lives in you.

September 4, 2006

your friend,
Darren
Re: TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock By tran on 5/9/2006 8:52 AM
Investing
Brokers Face Their Worst Nightmare
By Arne Alsin
RealMoney.com Contributor

There are about nine million shares of Overstock.com (OSTK:Nasdaq) that are
currently short.

Here is the problem: My calculations and research indicate that there are
only 4.5 million lendable shares in the float, so twice as many shares have
been sold short by brokers as should have been permitted. This is not
possible, if brokers are playing according to the rules.

It's important for investors to understand that all shares in the float are
not lendable. If shares are in cash accounts or retirement accounts, they
are not supposed to be lent. Even shares in margin accounts are not lendable
if account holders ask their broker to move those specific shares from T2
(margin) into T1 (cash).

Of course, certificated shares are not lendable when they are in the
possession of the shareholder. Certificated shares represent an unusually
large number in the case of Overstock. (By way of full disclosure, our
mutual fund is in the process of obtaining certificates for our Overstock
shares.)

Figuring out the lendable float in any stock requires some time and effort.
In the days when stock certificates were actively traded, anywhere from 10%
to 20% of a company's float was lendable. When the 10%-20% of the float
threshold was reached, the supply of lendable certificates dried up.

While the 10%-20% level shouldn't be viewed as a hard-and-fast rule in
today's market, it's a reasonable approximation for companies that have been
around awhile. That's because there's a greater likelihood that shares are
tucked away in pension and cash accounts (and are not lendable), or held at
institutions that don't lend out stock.

Consider the shares of Fairfax Financial (FFH:NYSE) . The company has a
short position of 16% of the float. But if you talk to lenders in the open
market, they'll tell you that this stock is impossible to borrow. Most of
the shares are held by long-term investors that won't lend the stock to
short sellers. And many other shares are held in cash and retirement
accounts and are not lendable.

Depending on the company and the shareholder base, it's also possible to
have more than 20% of the float short and still not be near 100% of the
lendable float. For example, the spinoff of Blockbuster (BBI:NYSE) from
Viacom (VIA.B:NYSE) has resulted in a large lendable Blockbuster float.
That's because many shares are held in retail margin accounts. While
Blockbuster is heavily shorted at 31% of the float, it's still possible for
shorts to borrow shares at a reasonable cost.

Is Overstock An Attractive Value?
The excessive short position in Overstock has uncovered short sellers
scrambling to find Overstock shares to borrow in the open market. Yields of
25% are being offered in the open market and, even at that rate, shares are
scarce. An agent lender for one of the world's largest asset custodians
(with several trillion dollars of assets) told me that it doesn't have a
single lendable Overstock share.

The irony here is that Overstock is now attractive to both value investors
and to institutions that facilitate short-selling.

Value investors can figure out easily enough that this stock is too cheap.
Big money is made by buying into companies that are enveloped by negativity
and on the cusp of profitability. I'll go into detail in my next column on
how to value Overstock and why robust profitability is coming for this
particular model.

The stock is attractive for institutions that lend to short-sellers because
they can loan the shares and generate a 25% yield. Since there is
essentially no supply of stock to borrow, it makes sense for a lending
institution to buy non-lendable stock -- such as stock in certificate form
or in an IRA account -- and convert those shares into lendable stock,
capturing a 25% yield in the process.

Even if a bear is convinced Overstock is headed down, it's irrational to
short a stock at a 25% annual cost in an effort to capture a maximum 100%
gain. It's completely implausible that the shorts stand to make a 100% gain
(before costs). Talk to any reputable venture capitalist and they will tell
you that Overstock's category dominance (far and away No. 1 in inventory
liquidation) has enormous value.

Overstock offers such a lousy risk/reward proposition for shorts, there can
be but one reason that a 25% yield is obtainable for lendable shares. It's
because certain market players are grossly overextended. With twice as many
shares short as are lendable, there are a lot of naked short positions in
place that are desperate to find shares to borrow.

The Threat to Investor Confidence
When brokers allow twice as many Overstock shares to be sold short as are
lendable, it is evidence of a structural problem. Undergirding the market is
an implicit triangle of trust between brokers, companies and investors. For
the market to function properly, investors must have confidence in the
system. They must be confident that their property is protected, that rules
are uniformly enforced and that rule violators are punished.

Stocks are accounted for as a so-called "fungible mass" in a book-entry
system, in the same way as currency. It requires confidence for the system
to work. Depositors don't demand actual currency for their cash assets
because they have confidence in the book-entry system of banks.

As one money manager explained to me, after struggling for weeks to get
delivery of Overstock shares (see my column about my similar experience), he
lost faith in the system. He didn't trust that his brokers would not lend
out his shares. So he demanded actual certificates, which took another
several weeks, and they are now in a bank vault.

When shareholders resort to demanding actual certificates for their shares,
as has occurred en masse at Overstock, it is akin to a depositor going to
his bank and demanding actual currency -- a so-called "run on the bank."

In the days before federal insurance, a run on the bank used to be a
banker's worst nightmare. It's fair to call the growing demand for
certificates in Overstock a "run on the brokers." And it may turn out to be
a broker's worst nightmare.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At time of publication, Alsin and/or ACM was long OSTK and BBI, although
holdings can change at any time.

Arne Alsin is the founder and principal of Alsin Capital Management, an
Oregon-based investment advisor, and portfolio manager of The Turnaround
Fund, a no-load mutual fund. Under no circumstances does the information in
this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Alsin
appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
Re: TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock By dave on 5/9/2006 9:53 AM
Sorry if this is a double - I haven't seen it posted.

Warren Buffet Acknowledges Overstock Short Selling Jihad
On Sunday, Karen Richardson of the Wall Street Journal reported that Warren Buffet, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) has no problem with short sellers and naked short sellers. Though he acknowledges that many companies hampered by naked short sellers are fraudulent and illegitimate, he knows of one company that is real and has complained about it. Buffet admits that he has a close friend, Patrick Byrne, chairman of Overstock Inc. (Nasdaq: OSTK) who is extremely concerned with the issue of naked short selling. While not naming Byrne directly, it seems obvious that Buffet was referring to the man who has led a vocal jihad against naked short selling. After all, Buffet and Patrick’s father have a special relationship, since Jack Byrne, Overstock deputy chairman, was once at the helm of Geico. Overstock is currently involved in a litigation battle, filing an unfair business practices lawsuit against Gradient Analytics, Inc., and Rocker Partners LP in late 2005. The lawsuit alleges that the hedge fund and research company conspired todrive down the company's stock in a scheme known as naked short selling. Generally speaking, naked short selling is defined as selling a securityshort without borrowing the necessary securities to make a delivery, thusresulting in a failure to deliver the securities to the rightful owner.
Re: TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock By aldigit01 on 5/9/2006 10:25 AM
Interesting that Arne brings up Fairfax (FFH). If you look into RP's Q4 filing, you'll see a large long put position opened up several months ago. Is there any surprise that it's been on the NYSE reg SHO list for 161 days now?
Re: TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock By IMPEACH COX NOW! on 5/9/2006 2:07 PM
Chris Cox. What a turd. Too caught up in the money game to force a buy-in but he can take the time to subpoena Overstock. What a tool for the crooks on Wall Street. Shame on you Chris!
Re: TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock By n-tres-ted on 5/9/2006 2:39 PM
I know a lot of water is under the bridge since this NSS problem became apparent. But not a lot of time has passed since Christopher Cox was appointed chairman of the SEC. I have spoken with an individual who is well acquainted with a couple of important SEC staff officials, who has very high regard for them and sees a high likelihood of effective enforcement action to come on this subject. I give his opinion a considerable amount of weight. The wrong doers may have more reason to worry than they presently foresee.
Re: TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock By IMPEACH COX NOW! on 5/9/2006 3:09 PM
n-tres-ted - Righ-t he has sat on his ass while stocks have sat on the SHO List since his arrival about a half a year ago without a buyin being issued. Why is that?. He has the time to stop subpoenas of journalists who should be subpoenaed, goes to meetings with them scum, , gets his buddy back at work in four days on Wall Street who was suspended for life by the NASD, and now issues a witch-hunting subpoena to Overstock today. Get the picture? Don't be a fool.
Re: TSCM's Arne Alsin Tells The Truth About Failure To Deliver, and Overstock By n-tres-ted on 5/9/2006 3:27 PM
What's this about a subpoena to OSTK today?

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