All,
I was away for a while on project I thought to be very important. You can follow my thoughts here with a lot more regularity than the last nine months have permitted.
I will be giving some public talks on the markets again after the election.
What I will say will be directly determined by what happens in those elections.
In the meantime, you may all look for examples (there are about 5) of how developing companies have managed to survive and thrive in Socialist economies.
What few remaining development stage companies that have survived here will be killed off no matter what happens, with the possible exception of energy.
Kudos to the SEC for their spectacular performance here as total market dunces. They deserve an Oscar for their mixture of ethical relativism and moral bargaining with sick corruption.
According to Socialist precepts, there won’t be a need for them in the future. We all know bigger is going to be more honest, right?
There will be no US whipping boys, as our markets shut down entirely. What oh what shall the SEC do to justify their existence?
You will only have about 10 MONSTER banks that are also brokers, with no need of SEC oversight, whatever the hell that is, thank you very much.
You don’t need brokers and banks for small and most medium size companies as they won’t be able survive now, nor will new ones be formed until socialist rules tell us who has to get paid.
Naked shorting in all its guises will eventually die off too, having slaughtered all their golden geese, the actual securities people bought for returns. Derivative markets will die on their own vines, converting to pure gambling markets to compete with Las Vegas.
There won’t be any securities underlying the new (?) derivatives that aren’t owned by the Government.
Have we been here before? Absolutely, just before most of us were born.
FDR tried this socialist crap like the bailout in 1933 to 1935, dramatically damaging the recovery of the economy after the Great Raid’s Depression.
Here are some great trivia questions:
What year did banks collapse after the 1929 Raid Crash? 1933.
What year of the Depression was a Bear Raid equal to 1929? 1937.
What year was the worst GDP year of the Depression? 1938.
What year did actual unemployment peak in the Great Depression? 1938.
How did FDR cover up these grotesque unemployment levels? He dropped anyone unemployed more than 1 year from the rolls. This should sound familiar.
What ended the Great Depression? WWII.
When did markets begin to recover from the 1929 Raid? 1954.
How long was the next secular bear market? 14 years, from 1968 to 1982.
Breathe deeply. There are two possible outcomes here, one horrible, and the other terrifying.
As I said in an Interview on Financial Sense, I hope the aliens are friendly. They are coming to your markets in 2012 if predictions are right.
A good friend asked me to tell them to bring money for our banks. I only hope their favorite book is not “How to Serve Man”, the cookbook. (thanks to author Heinlein, et al)
Another said he felt like he had been through a really bad divorce: He had lost half his assets, and he still had a wife.
LOL. About what I have no idea.
Regards, Bud.